Kiev Puts Its Military Deaths at 10,000 So Far

Zelensky’s adviser Arestovich estimates that about 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed so far.

It was also reported in the Washington Post that Arestovich said in the same talk that Ukrainian daily losses have now reached 200-300 per day. It turned out this was a misreport and a bad translation. Arestovich did not actually say that.

Arestovich said that Ukraine was suffering around 100 deaths per day early in the war, but that the Russian dead is at least 200-300 daily, but that it fluctuates to as many as 600 daily.

So the 200-300 figure is actually Arestovich’s claim about Russian losses.

— On April 15 Zelensky stated that Ukraine had lost 2500-3000 soldiers dead, which works out to 50-60 daily.

— On May 24 Zelensky stated that 50-100 Ukrainian soldiers were dying daily counting only the most active part of the front in the east. Not counting the Kherson front and any troops killed with cruise missiles in barracks and training camps.

— Then on June 1 Zelensky upped his number to 60-100.

— Then on June 9 a Zelensky adviser said the number had recently hit 100-200.

— Then on June 10 Arestovich spoke about 100 deaths per day, and 10,000 in total so far.

The Zelensky admin is somewhat consistent in the numbers it is giving out. Every estimate it has ever given falls between 50 and 200 soldiers killed daily.

There is a noticeable trend where since May 24 Kiev is now talking about its losses much more often than before.

This coincides with an intense, coordinated push by Kiev (and cooperative Westerners) to get more arms, ammunition, and money.

On the one hand, revealing the grim reality of a high casualty toll can complicate conscription, but on the other hand, it creates media pressure on the West to provide more backing.

On May 21 I said that Ukrainian KIA could be anywhere between 6,000 and 18,000. That was day 86 of the war. The war has now gone on for 109 days.

With another 23 days of the war and Arestovich confirming about 10,000 Ukrainian deaths, I would take that as the lower bound, with 25,000 as the very upper bound. Point estimate would be closer to 10K than 25K.

These are already very high losses (as well as incredibly tragic).

However, figures like 60,000 Ukrainian dead that are being thrown around are not convincing. Each side has as few as 120,000 men on the front at any one time. It is not plausible that such a grouping of forces can lose 60,000 dead in under four months and continue to offer stiff resistance. (The 25K number I offer as the max already strains credulity in that respect.)

On a side note, losses reported by Donetsk Republic show a declining trend. The weekly  wounded have declined from 700-900 from early March to late April, to 400-500 from late April to late May, to 250-300 in the last two weeks.

Some of that is explained by the Mariupol battle having been wrapped up (active fighting was over in late April), but could also indicate that fighting has become less intense or involves fewer forces. (At least fewer Donetsk forces.)

Donetsk dead, wounded, and total by week

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  • Traveller

    Realistically, number of Ukie’s KIA is around 35.000 – 45.000, those are estimates of serious military analysts, with Russian losses being around 4. 000 – 5.000 KIA so far, which is in line with 1:10 loss ratio.
    That ratio is again to be expected when one side has absolute air superiority and huge advantage in artillery, not to mention exclusive possesion of long-range precision weapons.
    Obviously, ukies must lie about its losses, for the moral not to collapse, so this number of 10.000 KIA was to be expected from, but unfortunately the real numbers are around 45.000 KIA, 50.000 MIA (unaccounted, missing, desertions), and over 100.000 wounded.
    A tragedy indeed.

  • YakovKedmi

    is NATO, WEF, NWO feeling the pain yet ?

    Olga Skabyeva is ready to engage the opponents of Mother Russia & Pan-Slavdom orally.
    http://www.yamaguchy.com/images/olga.jpg

    Cost-benefit return-on-investment—
    What amount of rubel money has Putin Russia spent on the Special Operation against Ukraine in the first 100 days ? (500 billion ? one thousand billion ?)
    If Putin Russia had spent the same amount of Rubel money inside Empire Russia on roads, sidewalks, train-tacks, condominiums, farm-houses, owner-operator businesses, washmachines, stoves, dentists, would Russia not have become the envy of every resident of Ukraine ?

    If Putin Russia had used one-third of the war-chest (100,000,000,000 dollars divided by 145,000,000 residents), accumulated in NATO banks, to purchase made-in-Russia household appliances for citizens of Russia, would that not have produced a better return ?

    • Traveller

      The pain is felt mainly by EU and americans. Their return on investment is pure disaster. Russia, at the other hand, when calculating increase in oil and gas prices, plus grain prices, plus strengthening of ruble, is definitely doing well. Not to mention expected increased demands for russian weapons, which is obviously doing extremely well, ruining western javelins, LAWS and similar trash. That will be huge economic bonanza as well.

      Your remark on household appliances is hillarious, to put it very, very kindly. If someone threatens you and kills your citizens (in Donbass, Odessa, etc) , you would have to be out of your mind to invest in new TV or microvawe, instead in military.

      Russians understand that. You should think harder.

    • Abraham Lincoln

      Russia can do both build roads, sidewalks, train-tacks, condominiums, farm-houses, owner-operator businesses, washmachines, stoves, dentists, and spend on the military now that the empire won’t be able to drain the profits of Russian businesses and taek them out of the country and Russia has learned they can print money like the USSA but Russian money is backed by commodities not Jewish hot air and if Russia spends it to strengthen Russia and does not give it to the racist supremacist global Jewish satanic slave empire dictatorship to help Jews oppress Goyims all over the earth the Russian economy will grow at Chinese levels of 8 to 10% per year

  • Kevin Barsi

    Where’s markos smarts ass editor notes or is that only for the lieing Russian government not the brave and truthful Ukrainian government

  • aa3

    Neither side is in economic trouble. Russia wisely waited for a commodities bull market to launch this war which gave them money and leverage. And then with the war the prices went up even more.

    And for the US funding $250 billion a year for Ukraine is not a big problem.

    For the Europeans the extra cost of energy of say $300 billion a year, its not that big of a problem because their economy is ~$20 trillion. They will just outbid developing countries.

    And since neither side can substantially advance at the moment, nobody is in particular military trouble. It might get into a slugfest that could go on for years with military equipment continuing to be sent in.

    • Traveller

      Hahahah! Really? Is that why germans are told to switch off hot water and use bycyles? Because of 20 trillion economy?😁
      Printing fiat currency does not work any more, when you don’t have strong military to enforce it, and when you have to import everything, and your exports are non-competitive, you are finished.
      EU is going to implode within a year, they are finished. Militarily, they are finished long ago.

  • GMC

    Rumours have it that the Ukies aren’t even collecting half of the KIAs in the field and Russia is burying them. I suppose those combat trenches are good for many things.

    • Danram

      At least the Ukes aren’t losing so many men that they’re having to accept recruits over 40 now. Moreover, they don’t need to send out 62-year-old retired generals to fly combat missions.

  • Danram

    The 10,000 number sounds about right to me. But the Russians have lost at least three times that many, not to mention so many tanks that they’re having to pull 65-year-old T-62s out of mothballs and send them to the front lines.

    The Ukrainians are more than content to let the Russians bleed themselves white to gain small amounts of ground in Donbas. Once a critical mass of superior western longer-range artillery has accumulated on the front line, Ukraine will begin to push the Russians back.

    Morale among Russian troops is so bad right now that many of them will simply either surrender or turn and run once they’ve lost their artillery protection. When the collapse starts, it will accelerate quickly.