Japanese Think Tank Predicts South Korea’s GDP per Capita Will Surpass Japan’s in 2027

South Korea is poised to pass Japan in per capita gross domestic product six years from now, analysts are predicting.

The prediction is drawing even more attention for coming not from South Korea, but from Japan itself.

Japan’s Nikkei newspaper published an article Thursday quoting data from the Japan Center for Economic Research predicting that in terms of per capita GDP — an indicator of individual prosperity — Japan would be surpassed by South Korea in 2027 and by Taiwan in 2028.

The center cited delayed digital reforms in Japan’s government and stagnant labor productivity as informing its predictions.

As of 2020, Japan’s per capita GDP amounted to $39,890 — 25% higher than South Korea’s and 42% higher than Taiwan’s.

But while South Korea’s per capita GDP was predicted to grow by an annual rate of 6% and Taiwan’s by 8.4%, Japan’s estimated annual growth rate was just 2%. [However, South Korea hasn’t actually seen 6% since 20210.]

The newspaper attributed the gap to differences in labor productivity.

“The rate of increase in labor productivity during the 2020s and 2030s is expected to raise the per capita GDP rate of increase by 4 percentage points in South Korea and Taiwan, but by less than 2% in Japan,” it said.

Meanwhile, China was also predicted to surpass the US by around 2033 in terms of GDP, which signifies a country’s overall economic strength. Late last year, the same center predicted the reversal could happen as early as 2028, but the latest prediction gave a later date.

At the same time, it also projected that the US would regain the lead over China in economic strength around 2050, owing to regulations by Chinese authorities and a long-term trend of population decline.

It’s a prediction that has profound implications for the course of the current intense strategic rivalry between the US and China.

Source: Hankyoreh

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  • Dale

    Doesn’t this predispose that South Korea comes out of hiding some year ?

  • ken

    GDP seems a piss poor method of gauging economies. The US “produces” very little compared to the economies of Asia. The population in the US has very little of the skills needed for production compared to Asia. Those ships waiting to offload at LA and other ports is a visual of US productivity.

    If the US Federal Reserve Dollar was not the worlds currency the charts would show a very different picture. As the US gov is doing everything in its power to destroy the currency I doubt it will be the worlds reserve currency much longer.

    Japan has destroyed it currency and China seems to be doing the same.

    From what I can tell GDP per capita better illustrates inflation and buying power than labor production. For the life of me I can’t see how the US could lead Asia in this stat with 70% of the country stocking shelves with foreign made product.

    Check out the chart.

    https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/USA/united-states/gdp-per-capita

    It’s a mystery to me with all the Tom Foolery with all the worlds currencies how anyone can figure anything out.

    Increasing GDP,,, US style.

  • Jerry Hood

    In 2027, the world shall be after Armageddon= nuclrar WW3 , North Korean survivors unify Korea; and Taiwan may sunk if not communist Chinese…