15 Soldiers Died Every Day Last Week From Donetsk Republic Alone

Donetsk again updates its weekly military losses as it always does. In the last 7 days, 108 of its soldiers were killed, about 15 each day.

I speculate that Lugansk losses are likely smaller (due to its somewhat smaller population and army) but in the same general range, so perhaps 10 each day.

Donetsk and Lugansk are contributing only the minority of troops so if their losses were 25 killed daily then Russian ones could have been anywhere from at least time number to up to 4 times higher.

My best guess would be that Russian losses are twice what Donetsk and Lugansk have sustained. So perhaps 50 Russian KIA daily, or 75 daily for the entire Russia-led coalition.

If the same formula is applied to the total 1821 Donetsk military deaths so far then one could be looking at 1200 Lugansk KIA and 6000 Russian KIA for a total of 9000 on the Russia-led side.

Or if Donetsk military deaths are greatly overrepresented on the Russia-led side relative to the number of troops it is contributing then the numbers could be closer to 900 Lugansk (just half of Donetsk) and 3200 Russian KIA (Donetsk and Lugansk times 1.5) for just under 6000 KIA on the Russia-led side.

Ukrainian losses are likely even higher, but since the proposed combined number for the Russian side is already so uncertain an estimate of Ukrainian deaths derived from that would have such a range and be so uncertain as to have little value. Anything from 6000 to 18000 seems plausible depending on what your favored number for the other side is.

In general daily losses on the Russian side are lower than they were during the first month of the war. Troops are perishing at perhaps half the rate early on, however, the difference is that for these deaths the Russian side can point to only small territorial gains. Far smaller than what was being accomplished early on. On a theoretical lives-lost-per-kilometer-taken basis the war has become more costly rather than less so. Radically so.

In reality methodical, slow warfare does not reduce casualties. Fast warfare reduces casualties, albeit it compresses the casualties it does produce into a much smaller timeframe. Militaries know this. The only reason you would go slow, which is the expensive way to advance, is because you don’t have the correlation of forces required to go fast.

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  • Steve

    You also go slower when you are trying to preserve civilian life and generate a solid amount of evidence that you are acting lawfully and ethically.

    Once the couldron in Donbass closes and the relatively large number of Ukrainian fighters is vanquished there will be a much faster and easier run to the finish line on the Polish border.

  • wt

    Thanks for the article! There may be other goals to the special military operation than minimizing Russian casualties or taking as many kilometers as possible. Some guesses:
    – Improve relations with the Russian-speaking population
    – Inflict maximum losses on Ukrainian military
    – Set up a strategic position for a larger war
    – Minimize losses of Ukranian civilians
    – Reduce risk of false flag operations
    – Improve Russia’s image in the world
    – Distract from other issues
    – Protect supply lines
    – Conquer only what can become a productive part of the Russian world

    And there must be many others!

  • Jerome

    This Russian “invasion” is a mystery to me regarding how it is being conducted. Faster is better. Overwhelming force is better. Logistics are one of several equally important things a commander has to take into account when planning. Yet everything Russia appears to be doing appears to go against basic military doctrine, doctrine that even second lieutenants used to be taught. What I am wondering is if Russia is doing this deliberately.

    What if Russia is trying to suck NATO into open warfare? It appears that Russia is holding their best formations back. Initially I though it was good planning i.e. let’s invade Ukraine, but lets keep the best in reserve in case NATO responds by entering this donnybrook with actual ground forces. But what if that is the plan? Maybe Russia is so sick of all the crap the west has been doing for the last 30 years they are now prepared to end it? I spent 3 decades in an American uniform watching the American military go gay. There is no way the American/EU armies could stand toe to toe with the Russian army even as long has the Ukrainians have. The Ukrainians and the Russian have male military’s which are inherently superior when it comes to an on the ground slug fest. What if Russia is finally planning to storm through the Fulda Gap as longed fear by NATO and put an end to the nonsense coming from the west? I would love it if they world launch a Poseidon in the direction of DC and wash the filthy place of the face of earth with a giant Tsunami.

    • Pink Unicorne

      Because of DC is full..of..gays?

  • YakovKedmi

    >>>> “15 Soldiers Died Every Day”
    Compare that to Chicago, which is allegedly at peace, democratically elected, and civilized.

  • Noah

    Imagine how many dead soldiers would’ve been daily if Russia involved more troops as you demand! Plus, amateurs discuss strategy, professionals discuss logistics in war situation. When you have a well fortified army in front of you, attrition war is the costless solution, otherwise through high agglomeration you expose troops and intense necessary supply lines. This is a known pre-programmed war by both sides and Ukraine is the sacrifice. You miss all relevant points, either through poor judgement, or worst, intentionally!